Global warming could put Africa on the back foot after the continent has managed to make some lost ground. Unfortunately, the worst-case scenario, according to the science, could snuff this nascent progress. In fact, it could bind Africa in a new cycle of poverty and aid dependency to the West.
You probably should know this by now. But, just in case you did not, here it is: the single most important threat to mankind is climate change – global warming. In fact, it dwarfs all other concerns – including the constant fear of nuclear war – since we are talking about the planet and the eventual seismic changes that will occur as a result of how humanity has collectively lived in the past. More than 100 million people could die between now and 2050 from the effects of climate change, if the world does not take decisive steps to arrest it. It is now accepted gospel in academic and policy circles that the developing world will disproportionately suffer the devastating toll of climate change in lives and money, though its role in causing this existential crisis is very minuscule What this means for Africa is an ethical issue. Global warming could trap Africa in severe poverty, forcing it into a new cycle of dependency on aid from the West.
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| Oxfam photo of a family gathering firewood in drought-stricken Kenya in 2011. |
It is truly
impossible to underestimate the potential cost of global warming to Africa – in
lives and money. No one can be certain of the future, but the signs are all too
clear: global record heat waves, unprecedented floods, rapid loss of ice caps,
and natural disasters on television that look like apocalyptic religious texts
come to life. If there is one group of people unprepared for global warming and
its consequences, it’s Africans. If the world refuses to take this problem
seriously, the world’s poor will overwhelmingly be the victims. But, it is the
likelihood of one possibility playing out that should concern most Africans.
The cost of
climate change and its impact on Africa’s collective national economies could,
realistically, put the Continent in a new, perpetual cycle of aid dependency on
the West. That is to say that climate change could shackle Africa in poverty
for a very long time. And, as the effects of climate change grow precipitously,
the volatilities from natural disasters alone could eventually see most of its
economic gains wiped out. It could easily be reduced to having to beg for aid
for its starving, natural disaster-ridden populace.
Since the Continent is poor it cannot contribute to
the gargantuan sum environmental scientists believe should be spent annually to
mitigate this problem. According
to the UN, “most estimates [on the global cost of mitigating climate change]
fall in a range from
$250 billion to $800 billion per year between now and 2040.” The World Bank estimates that
between 2010 and 2050, the cost for sub-Sahara Africa to adapt to climate
change will be at least
$18 billion annually. This sum does not include the cost of putting African
economies on a low-carbon path.
Just to give you a good idea of what we are talking about here; the Nigerian president recently
proposed a $29.3
billion federal budget for 2013. Nigeria is the second largest economy in
sub-Sahara Africa after South Africa.
The likelihood of
a crushing climate-induced African poverty is high, because the political will
to do what it takes to avoid this scenario is lacking. But, also, most
importantly, it is because Africans are incredibly powerless and not a serious
voice in the climate change debate – or in any debate on the international
stage. Western policy makers, with the money and technology to deal with the
worst outcomes of global warming to their citizens, do not take seriously –
even though it’s now an ethical matter – the millions of people in the poor
parts of the world who are certain to be casualties of the brave new world
humanity is about to face. The American
presidential debates – all three of them – notably did not touch on the
most important issue facing mankind. The global economic crises has proven a
great excuse for many countries to fall behind on their financial
responsibilities to the funds set up to protect poor vulnerable countries.
As increasingly seems to be the case, the developed
world, considered the chief architect of this global predicament, due to its
economic policies beginning in the 20th century, does not have the
will to conclusively face the high cost of the problem. So, it doesn’t look
like the human race will do enough to abate the worst aspects of a warming
planet. In a continent where more than 80 percent of the inhabitants still
consider themselves farmers by profession, what will happen when rainfall
patterns increasingly become erratic? What happens when widespread crop
failures become the new norm?
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| The consensus is that the effect of global warming will be to accentuate the extremes with more pronounced droughts and more severe flooding. |
Some studies conducted on the potential damage to the
Continent have returned with some precarious predictions. For instance, according to an IPCC
study (International Governmental Panel on Climate Change), “projected
reductions in yields in some countries could be as much as 50 percent by 2020,
and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90 percent by 2100, with
small-farm holders being the most affected. It will also aggravate the water
stress currently faced by some countries – about 25 percent of Africa’s
population (about 200 million people) currently experience high water stress.
The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be
between 350-600 million by 2050.”
When global
warming comes full-term, African countries will look to the international
community for aid – handouts, if you will – to deal with the humanitarian
crisis. The disaster will be overwhelming. The question to ask, though, is: if
the international community is unwilling to foot the bill for the preventative
measures necessary to avoid the worst of what seems so evidently on its way,
would it be willing to give aid that is triple the cost it so ardently shrugged
off earlier? The irresponsible borrowing of African governments post
independence still saddles an entire continent more than 60 years later.
Climate change could do the very same; it could be the new chains on a
Continent newly acquainted with signs of a better tomorrow.
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